The Gray zone

Good Thursday morning. This is Sam Blewett.
FACING THE MEDIA: With discord in Downing Street, attention swirling around his love of freebies and endless chatter about his top adviser’s pay, Keir Starmer may have considered retreating to the bunker. But no. The prime minister is embarking on an entire day of answering media questions — and not just from any old journalists. With Labour conference looming, it’s time for Starmer to face the regional media pack, an intrepid gang which has a way of making embattled prime ministers come unstuck. 
Becoming the story: Spinners in No. 10 will be growing gloomier while reading the sheer amount of coverage in today’s papers about No.10 chief of staff Sue Gray, after the BBC revealed on Wednesday she earns £170,000 a year — £3,000 more than the PM himself. Crucially, the latest leak confirms the bitter acrimony at the heart of the new government, with Gray the regular subject of negative stories amid reports of a major power struggle at the heart of No. 10.
Reminder: This government is little more than two months old.
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Pol ed ache: In the usual pre-party conference flurry, Starmer will sit down for broadcast interviews with regional and national political editors from 26 BBC and ITV stations (we’ve compiled a full list below). Each will have different lines of inquiry based on local interests — but their intimate knowledge of the hardships faced by their viewers during the cost of living crisis will make Starmer’s defense of why he needs others to pick up the tab for plush suits and hospitality at Arsenal matches all the more challenging.
Waiting game: Sadly for a national Lobby pack now chomping at the bit on all this stuff, an embargo has been slapped on the PM’s regional interviews, meaning they won’t all come rolling out live through the morning as happened with Liz Truss’ regional radio humiliation of 2022. Instead, there’ll be a mass news dump when the coverage airs at 5 p.m. 
Filling the new void … is Nigel Farage, helpfully. He’s doing a rival regional round ahead of the Reform UK conference, which kicks off in Birmingham on Friday — starting with an hour of live BBC radio interviews from 8 a.m. (timings below). Reform has been enjoying trolling Starmer on his haul of gifts, though it’s fair to say there were plenty of stories about Farage’s own freebies back in his Brussels days, and he’s been stacking up a nice array of prezzies since arriving in the Commons too.
With his work cut out for him: Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds steps forward for the morning broadcast round. He wants to talk up plans to stop large companies delaying payments to smaller firms (more on that on PA), but will no doubt have to float a few placeholder defenses for his boss. 
GEAR FOR KEIR: The first wave of the headache for Starmer comes from the renewed focus on his acceptance of gifts — further laid bare by Sam Coates running the figures through Sky News’ Westminster Accounts tool to find that the PM has accepted far more freebies than any other MP. Since December 2019 he’s received £107,145 in gifts, benefits and hospitality. Commons Leader Lucy Powell is second, lagging far behind on a still whopping £40,289.  
More ammunition: ITV’s Robert Peston reports that Starmer’s beloved Arsenal have handed him the use of a corporate box. It will likely add many thousands of pounds to the gifts he has to declare in parliament’s register of financial interests. The Telegraph reports that more questions arise from Starmer frequently using an £18 million penthouse owned by major donor Waheed Alli during the election campaign.
Saw it coming: Playbook has been low-key banging on about this for ages, and even carried out a poll for our PM edition back in June which found that 47 percent of respondents reckoned Starmer should refuse free tickets if he makes it to Downing Street. Just 33 percent thought it was all kosher. 
Lettuce land: No calling this a “Westminster bubble” story — it’s made the splash of the Star, which mocks Starmer up in a crown and an ermine gown and labels him “The King of the Cadgers.” 
GRAY MATTER: But most of the newspapers have shifted their attention to the sensational BBC scoop about the Downing Street chief of staff’s pay — and the level of acrimony it is exposing in Whitehall.
ICYMI: The BBC’s Chris Mason and Henry Zeffman reported on Wednesday they were briefed about Gray’s salary by a “number of Whitehall sources,” who were more than happy to share their anger about the former top civil servant raking it in while more junior special advisers had their salaries rebanded. Gray’s earnings would’ve been published in due course in the annual SpAds report, but her critics clearly wanted this out now.
All the rage: The Mail’s Jason Groves has one senior official saying: “It is open season on her — she is losing her authority fast and it already looks like her departure is inevitable.” In the Times, one Labour adviser accuses Gray of “fighting with friends she’s not made yet” and showing an “extraordinary lack of political nous.” While the FT hears from one SpAd who reckons the pay disclosure could be the “final straw.” They add: “Lots of people are ready to walk. Nobody that I know has signed a contract.”
Sue for peace: Starmer has been a firm defender of his top ally, and there was a concerted rearguard action from some spinners to come to Gray’s defense, with a glowing quote from an anonymous Cabinet minister echoing the government line being floated about. Health Secretary Wes Streeting said “we’re very lucky to have Sue” when doorstepped on Whitehall. However, one Downing Street official Playbook spoke to sought to distance Starmer from the pay rise by arguing that “special advisers’ pay is set by officials.”
Plumbing the leak: Cabinet Office officials suggested Simon Case isn’t part of a leak hunt, as yet. But former Conservative SpAd Henry Newman had a look from the outside for his blog and has noticed an intriguing update to the BBC’s story. 
IN SEARCH OF A SILVER LINING: The Bank of England’s interest rates announcement at midday could provide Starmer some good news to counter the negative press and his gloomy narrative to date — but don’t count on it. Most analysts reckon rate-setters on the Monetary Policy Committee will hold the base rate at 5 percent, after making their first reduction since 2020 last month. A cut seemed even less likely after Wednesday’s inflation figures had the Consumer Prices Index stuck at 2.2 percent.
That’s despite … the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering interest rates for the first time in more than four years. It cut the lending rate by half a percentage point, a bigger reduction than normal, and projected more cuts before the end of the year. Expect plenty of talk about how the move affects the rest of the world. 
DINING AS THE WORLD BURNS: Foreign Secretary David Lammy will join U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken at a diplomatic dinner for foreign ministers in Paris this evening as tensions deepen in the Middle East.
More blasts: On Wednesday, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared a “new phase” in his country’s war after a second wave of devices were detonated to deadly effect in Lebanon. Twenty more people were reported dead and 450 wounded in the explosions of walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah militants — some at the funerals of people who were killed when thousands of pagers detonated a day earlier. Hezbollah and the Lebanese government are pinning responsibility on Israel. 
Five allies: Playbook hears the meeting in France was requested on Monday before the detonations, but a U.S. official has indicated that the Middle East, as well as Ukraine, will be discussed. It’s being held between the “quint” grouping of the U.K., the U.S., France, Germany and Italy. The timing indicates they will discuss granting permission for Ukraine to use long range Storm Shadow missiles to attack military sites within Russia.
Arms restrictions: The i’s Jane Merrick hears that Britain could widen its ban on some weapon sales to Israel over the pager attacks. That would no doubt enrage Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu even more. He’s been doubling down on his criticism of Labour’s current restrictions, telling the Daily Mail in a front-page interview that Starmer has been “sending mixed messages” over Britain’s support for Israel, and saying Labour had acted to “undermine” its ability to defend itself. 
NATO expansion: Boris Johnson, in a drumbeat of media appearances ahead of his book launch, has upped the stakes by calling for Ukraine to be welcomed into NATO “now.” The former prime minister has argued in the Spectator that the Article 5 security guarantee stating that an attack on one member is an attack on all could be extended in the coming months to cover “the Ukrainian territory currently controlled by Ukraine.”
But first: Lammy is in Brussels to take part in high level discussions on the post-Brexit future of Gibraltar. He’ll be negotiating with the chief minister of the British Overseas Territory, Fabian Picardo, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares and the EU’s Maroš Šefčovič. No breakthrough is expected, but a joint statement should follow the meeting. The Telegraph has a good primer. 
JD’s other British mate: Numerous widely criticized comments by Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance have not exactly made life easier for Lammy, who’s long tried to court the Republican as Labour reaches out across the divide. But POLITICO’s Anne McElvoy has spoken to another one of Vance’s pals this side of the pond for this week’s edition of her Power Play podcast. James Orr, an associate professor of philosophy of religion at Cambridge University, tells her Vance “thinks very highly of David Lammy and thinks he’s somebody that he could work with.” Tune in here.
Talking to China: Chancellor Rachel Reeves held a call with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng. Beijing’s readout said he urged the U.K. to restart the China-U.K. Economic and Financial Dialogue after the economic talks were frozen out under the Conservatives. My colleague Graham Lanktree has more on our Pro service.
STATS DROP: The first cladding remediation figures for August will be published at 9.30 a.m. here. The stats are the first to come out since the final Grenfell report.
CHANGE YOUR PASSWORDS: An X hack blighted politicos Wednesday night, including Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood, Labour MPs Carolyn Harris and Chris Elmore and the National Education Union. The hackers posted identical messages on all affected accounts flogging bitcoin. Real original … The tweets have now been removed. 
The Commons’ biggest landlord: New Labour MP Jas Athwal, already facing claims of being a rogue landlord, now has made the splash of the i. Ben Gartside reports that the Ilford South MP’s nursery company has faced complaints over breaching child safety rules at three properties. Read the piece here.
Brexit hits the borders: The Times’ Matt Dathan reports that border security is being compromised because post-Brexit trading rules requiring government contracts to be open to international competition have delayed replacement of the Border Force fleet. There are claims Liz Truss is at fault and counter-fire blaming Liam Fox. Read it all here.
Maybe they aren’t so different after all? First, it was rows involving donors. Now my colleague Charlie Cooper has found another similarity between Keir Starmer and Boris Johnson. Four years after Johnson promised to make Britain the “Saudi Arabia of wind” with a dream of U.K.-made, floating wind turbines bobbing on the world’s oceans, Starmer’s government is betting big on the technology to deliver an industrial renaissance. Charlie’s piece on Starmer’s uncharacteristically boosterish love of floating offshore wind is here.
NOT MORE PAINTING ADJUSTMENTS: Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced at a No. 11 event for female business leaders that she will replace paintings of men in the stateroom with art either of or by women, in a move meant to signify smashing the glass ceiling. The Tories called it “pathetic gesture politics.” We’ll see if there’s space for Thatcher. The Guardian has more.
EXECUTIVE ORDERS: Results are out for the elections to Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee, with Ann Black, Jessica Barnard, Gemma Bolton, Jane Thomas, Angie Davies, Yasmine Dar, Peter Mason, Abdi Duale and Cat Arnold all taking the top seats. LabourList’s Tom Belger has unpacked the results, noting the pro-Starmer Labour to Win slate won big.  
TWITTER CHATTER: New Lib Dem mental health spokesperson Danny Chambers previously tweeted tasteless jokes about participants of Channel 4 show “Benefits Street” and overweight people, LBC’s Henry Riley revealed on X. Chambers told Riley that “I regret any offense that they [the tweets] may have caused.” A Lib Dem spokesperson said that Chambers had “deleted and apologized for these tweets many years ago.”
ORDER, ORDER: The order in which Tory leadership candidates will present their pitches at the conference was determined by a random draw using blank envelopes with numbers inside, according to the Spectator’s Katy Balls, writing in the Times. Up first will be Tom Tugendhat, then James Cleverly, and Robert Jenrick, with Kemi Badenoch closing. “It means conference attendees will leave with her in mind,” a supporter told Balls.
REPORTS OUT TODAY: Government growth plans “could feasibly get Britain halfway towards having the strongest economic growth in the G7” say the Resolution Foundation … the IEA says the NHS should be replaced by a European-style social health insurance system … there should be a new competency framework for all NHS managers to improve standards, says a Policy Exchange report backed by former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt … The number of working-age people getting health-related benefits in England and Wales has increased from 2.8 million in 2019–20 to 3.9 million in 2023–24 says the IFS …    
And breathe: £5.4 billion worth of consultancy contracts will end during this parliament, and the government could save billions if it does not automatically renew non-essential contracts, says the IFG … 60 percent of Black and 66 percent of Asian people polled by Careful Industries are worried digital ID could lead to social exclusion … Best for Britain says the use of tactical voting at the 2024 polls saw 62 additional Labour MPs and 29 Lib Dems get elected … While the overall number of students going to university has marginally increased, the number of mature and international students declined, according to new UCAS data. SW1 EVENTS: The British Foreign Policy Group releases its annual survey — which shows Brits support increasing defense spending as long as it doesn’t require touching the NHS, education or welfare — at 5 p.m. with former Shadow Foreign Minister Wayne David and former Solicitor General Robert Courts.
**Tune in to the trade policy chatter during party conference season. As the U.K.’s political parties gather to discuss their priorities, trade policy could be part of the conversation – and you shouldn’t be missing out. Get policy developments and insights from our London newsroom in our exclusive Party Conferences Debrief on Trade today at 11 a.m. BST. Sign up here.**
AL FAYED ALLEGATIONS: Five women have said they were raped by the former Harrods boss Mohamed Al Fayed, who died last year aged 94, according to the BBC. The broadcaster collected accounts from more than 20 women who alleged they were sexually assaulted by Al Fayed for a documentary and podcast, “Al Fayed: Predator at Harrods.”
FIGHTING TIME: Emergency services and volunteers in Poland and Hungary are racing to secure river banks and buildings to mitigate the impact of Storm Boris, which killed 23 people across Central Europe. Reuters has more. 
WHEN YOU PUT IT LIKE THAT: French President Emmanuel Macron has survived losing one election, hastily dissolving parliament, frantically calling another election, losing that election, triggering weeks of chaos and confusion by waiting to appoint a prime minister — just. My colleague Clea Caulcutt explores how.
ACCEPTANCE: POLITICO’s Matthew Karnitschnig writes that the four horsemen of Germany’s economic apocalypse are coming into view: an exodus of major industry; a rapidly worsening demographic picture; crumbling infrastructure; and a dearth of innovation. While Berlin has been in denial, it’s now coming to terms with the harsh economic reality, Matt writes.
ANYTHING TO SCROLL: X is working in Brazil despite a Supreme Court block order. An update to its communications network is using cloud services offered by third parties to allow some wannabe tweeters to take a route outside of the country to reach the site, the BBC reports. 
HOME AWAY FROM HOME: BBC Question Time will hold a U.S. election special, chaired by Fiona Bruce, in Pennsylvania on Oct. 10.
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THE LOCALS: Prime Minister Keir Starmer will sit down with BBC regional and national political editors for interviews in Wales … Scotland … Northern Ireland … North East … North West … East Yorkshire … West Yorkshire … East … South East … South … South West … West … West Midlands … East Midlands … and London.
As well as: ITV political editors in West Country … Meridian … Anglia London … Central … Calendar … Granada … Tyne Tees and Border … Wales … UTV … and STV.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds broadcast round: Times Radio (7.05 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … BBC (7.30 a.m.) … LBC (7.50 a.m.) … GMB (8.30 a.m.). 
Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage media round: GMB (7.20 a.m.) … BBC Radio Essex (8.08 a.m.) … BBC Radio Lancashire (8.15 a.m.) … BBC Radio Kent (8.22 a.m.) … BBC Radio West Midlands (8.38 a.m.) … BBC Radio Lincolnshire (8.45 a.m.) … BBC Radio Solent (8.52 a.m.) … LBC phone in (9.20 a.m.)
Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: American Jewish Committee in Israel Director and former IDF spokeswoman Avital Leibovich (7.05 a.m.) … former Middle East adviser to the U.S. Department of Defense Jasmine El-Gamal (7.10 a.m.) … formerly HM Chief Inspector of Constabulary Tom Winsor (8.35 a.m.). 
Also on Talk Breakfast: Small Business Minister Gareth Thomas (9.15 a.m.).  
Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Former U.K. AI skills champion Wendy Hall (7.15 a.m.) … U.N. spokesperson in Lebanon Andrea Tenenti (7.20 a.m.) … IfG senior fellow and former Theresa May adviser Giles Wilkes (7.30 a.m.) … Former IDF spokesperson Jonathan Conricus (8 a.m.).
Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former postmaster Christopher Head (7.30 a.m.) … Lebanon’s Ambassador to the U.K. Rami Mortada (8.15 a.m.). 
Also on LBC News: Former Commanding Officer of the U.K.’s Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Regiment Hamish de Bretton-Gordon (8.20 a.m.). 
Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): North East Labour Mayor Kim McGuinness … Conservative peer James Bethell … journalist Taj Ali … the Telegraph’s Madeline Grant.
**Tune in to the tech policy chatter during party conference season. As the U.K.’s political parties gather to discuss their priorities, tech policy could be part of the conversation – and you shouldn’t be missing out. Get on-the-ground insights from our London newsroom in our exclusive Party Conferences Debrief on Tech today at 12 p.m. BST. Register now.**
POLITICO UK: Keir Starmer channels his inner Boris Johnson.
Daily Express: Walkie-talkie blasts in second wave of attacks.
Daily Mail: Labour has ‘undermined’ Israel, says Netanyahu.
Daily Mirror: Walkie-talkie bomb blitz.
Daily Star: The king of the cadgers. 
Financial Times: Fed’s half-point cut to interest rates signals era of easing policy has begun.
i: Rogue landlord MP founded nursery firm accused of child safety breaches.
Metro: Secrets of Israel gadgets blitz.
The Daily Telegraph: New phase of Mid-East war after walkie talkie blitz.
The Guardian: Fears of escalation as second wave of deadly explosions hits Lebanon.
The Independent: Now walkie-talkies explode in new cyber attack on Hezbollah. 
The Sun: Death by walkie talkie. 
The Times: ‘New phase’ in conflict as walkie-talkie blasts kill 20.
POLITICO Europe: The Big Reveal. 
The Spectator: Nigel’s next target.
The New Statesman: What’s the story?
The New European: Trump: Vote for me or they’ll eat your dog.
WESTMINSTER WEATHER: It’ll be warm and sunny by lunchtime, all is not lost! High 25C, low 15C. 
NEW GIG, NEW DIGS: iNHouse Communications is launching iNHouse Media, with former Mirror Executive Editor Michael Greenwood and iNHouse Head of Media Daniel Mazliah appointed as media directors. 
NEW GIGS x2: Long-serving Labour Political Adviser Emma Barnes, who worked with former Shadow Cabinet Minister Jonathan Ashworth on DWP and health, has joined consulting firm Cavendish as an associate director. So has London Labour’s former head of comms Chris Lee.
CALLING ALL WOMEN: Nominations are open for the House magazine’s Women in Westminster: The 100 list. Parliamentarians, civil servants, journalists, activists, think tankers and public affairs professionals have until Nov. 1 to apply.
NEW NEWSLETTER ON THE BLOCK: The Guardian’s Jim Waterson has left the paper and is launching London Centric, a newsletter focused on news, culture and politics of the city. 
BREAKING BRITAIN: The New York Times is launching a breaking news hub in London, with Shashank Bengali stepping up to be deputy editor.
BAD LUCK: In 2020, the Mill Founder Joshi Herrmann sent an email to the then-chief exec of the Guardian Media Group asking if the Observer was up for sale — with plans to fundraise for its purchase — but got no response. Read more in his editor’s note. 
But on the actual sale: The NUJ chapels for the Observer and the Guardian unanimously voted in favor of motions opposing the sale of the Observer to Tortoise, and also supported a vote of no confidence in the Scott Trust — the company that owns the two papers. 
NOW WATCH: The 2002 drama “The Project,” which follows the behind-the-scenes drama of the making of New Labour. Available now on iPlayer, for the first time since the original broadcast.
WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Mason Boycott-Owen.
WRITING PLAYBOOK FRIDAY MORNING: Sam Blewett.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: Former Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford … Leeds East MP Richard Burgon … legendary BBC journalist Kate Adie … former National Cyber Security Centre chief Ciaran Martin … Lib Dem peer John Burnett … former FCDO SpAd Hudson Roe … Irish Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe.
PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Jack Blanchard and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.
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